U.S. economy · 2026 base · real 2026 dollars

Post-Labor GDP Simulator

Automation takes over a rising share of production tasks. Watch what happens to output, labor's share, and jobs, then switch on Citizens' Equity, a UBI, and a national land value tax to see how the gains could reach every adult.

Exhibit 1

Real GDP

Trillions of 2026 dollars. Potential is what the economy could produce; actual is what spending buys. The grey line holds automation at its 2026 level.
Exhibit 2

Who gets the output

Gross factor shares of GDP. Capital includes depreciation; land is pure ground rent.
Exhibit 3

Jobs and automation

Employment in millions (left) against the share of tasks done by machines (right).
Exhibit 4

Bottom 90%: income per adult, by source

Dollars per adult per year for everyone outside the top 10%. Taxes paid toward the UBI show below zero.
Exhibit 5

Policy flows

Percent of GDP. The UBI gap is the cost not covered by land tax revenue and must come from general taxes.
Exhibit 6

Public wealth

Citizens' Equity fund value and the market value of U.S. land, trillions of 2026 dollars. A land tax lowers land prices as it capitalizes.
Exhibit 7

Where demand comes from

Spending as a share of capacity. When the stack falls below the dashed line, output and jobs fall with it (demand-led mode).
Exhibit 8

Top 10% and bottom 90%

Income and spending per adult, log scale. The gap between each pair of lines is saving.
Exhibit 9

Federal debt

Debt and the interest bill as a share of GDP. The dashed line is debt without the fiscal stabilizer.

How the model works

  • Production. Task-based CES aggregate in the style of Acemoglu and Restrepo. Machines do a share a of tasks and people do the rest. At σ = 1, labor's share equals 1 − a. Above 1, machines substitute easily and the capital share rises faster. Below 1, the remaining human tasks become a bottleneck.
  • Automation path. A logistic curve from today's level toward the long-run ceiling. New human tasks offset part of it, as new occupations have historically.
  • Households and demand. The top 10% of adults receive most capital and land income and spend a small share of each extra dollar; the bottom 90% spend most of theirs. CE, land, and UBI payments go equally to every adult. In demand-led mode, output is the lesser of capacity and spending (consumption, investment set by capacity, and government and other demand held at its 2026 share of capacity). In saving-led mode, output stays at capacity and unspent income is invested, so redistribution trades demand against capital accumulation.
  • Calibration (2026). GDP $32.5T (BEA, Q2 SAAR); labor share 53% (BLS nonfarm business, 52.8% in Q2); employment 160M; population 343M; capital 2.6× GDP; land rent 4% of GDP; land value ≈ $37T at a 3.5% capitalization rate.
  • Citizens' Equity. Each year, firms issue new shares to the fund equal to X% of their capital attributable to U.S. sales (Y% weighting is applied in aggregate), until the fund reaches its ownership cap. The fund receives its pro-rata share of distributed corporate earnings and pays it out per adult.
  • Fiscal stabilizer. Optional deficit-financed spending that closes a chosen share of the demand-led output gap each year. It is added to a federal debt that starts at $40T and otherwise grows with real interest and a baseline primary deficit; stabilizer debt accrues interest too.
  • Land value tax. Levied on assessed land value only; buildings and improvements are exempt. The tax capitalizes: land price = rent ÷ (capitalization rate + tax rate), so revenue is a share of ground rent and does not distort output in the model.
  • Not modeled. Behavioral responses of investment to CE dilution or taxes, trade, inflation, the effect of interest payments on demand, and the distribution of private wealth. Treat results as scenarios, not forecasts.